Quantifying impact of obesity on cardiometabolic comorbidities and public health implications: Insights from South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South Africa has the highest obesity and hypertension rates in the African region. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to quantify the correlates and burden of obesity and their impacts on cardiometabolic conditions. METHODS: The study population was 80,270 men(41 %) and women(59 %) who participated in South African national surveys (2008-to-2017). Weighted-logistic regression models and the population attributable risk (PAR %) were used after accounting for the correlation structure of the risk factors in a multifactorial setting. RESULTS: Overall, 63 % of the women and 28 % of the men were either overweight or obese. Parity was identified as the most influential factor and exclusively associated with 62 % of the obesity in women; being married/cohabiting had the highest impact on obesity in men and associated with 37 % of the obesity. Overall, 69 % of them had comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes and heart disease. More than 40 % of the comorbidities were attributed to overweight/obesity. CONCLUSION: Developing culturally appropriate prevention programs are urgently needed to raise awareness of obesity, hypertension and their impacts on severe cardiometabolic diseases. This approach would also significantly reduce COVID-19 related poor health outcomes and premature deaths.

Geospatial variations in socioeconomic conditions and health outcomes in COVID-19 era: insights from South Africa (2020-2022).

South Africa also has the highest burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related comorbidities in Africa. We aimed to quantify the temporal and geospatial changes in unemployment, food insecurity, and their combined impact on depressive symptoms among South Africans who participated into several rounds of national surveys. We estimated the population-attributable risk percent (PAR%) for the combinations of the risk factors after accounting for their correlation structure in multifactorial setting. Our study provided compelling evidence for immediate and severe effect of the pandemic where 60% of South Africans reported household food insecurity or household hunger, shortly after the pandemic emerged in 2020. Despite the grants provided by the government, these factors were also identified as the most influential risk factors (adjusted odds ratios (aORs) ranged from 2.06 to 3.10, p < 0.001) for depressive symptoms and collectively associated with 62% and 53% of the mental health symptoms in men and women, respectively. Similar pattern was observed among pregnant women and 41% of the depressive symptoms were exclusively associated with those who reported household hunger. However, aORs associated with the concerns around pandemic and vaccine were mostly not significant and ranged from 1.12 to 1.26 which resulted substantially lower impacts on depressive symptoms (PAR%:7%-and-14%). Our findings suggest that South Africa still has unacceptably high rates of hunger which is accelerated during the pandemic. These results may have significant clinical and epidemiological implications and may also bring partial explanation for the low vaccine coverage in the country, as priorities and concerns are skewed towards economic concerns and food insecurity.

Quantifying the temporal changes in geographical-level contributions of risk factors to hypertension (2008-2017): Results from national surveys.

South Africa has one of the world's highest proportions of hypertensive individuals, which has become a major public health problem. Understanding the temporal and spatial patterns in hypertension rates is crucial for evaluating the existing prevention and care models, which have not been fully understood in South Africa. The geoadditive models were used to quantify the geographical clustering of hypertension in the Black South African population enrolled in the most recent cross-sectional national surveys (2008-2017). Population-attributable risks were calculated for modifiable risk factors. 80,270 men (41%) and women (59%) aged 15+ were included. Using the 2017 guidelines, 52% of the men and 51% of the women were classified as hypertensive. As expected, these proportions were slightly lower when we used the previous guidelines (48% and 47% for men and women, respectively). There was significant geospatial heterogeneity in hypertension prevalence with substantial province-specific disparities. Western, Northern, and Eastern Capes were the most significant provinces, with >50% of the hypertensive men and women. The population-level impact of obesity remained high in all provinces, where 33%-to-57% and 47%-to-65% of hypertensives were exclusively associated with obese/overweight men and women respectively. Despite some improvements in certain areas, most of the country is behind the targeted levels set in 2011/2013. Identifying the most relevant risk factors and their sub-geographical-level contributions to hypertension may have significant public health implications for developing and implementing cost-effective prevention programs to raise awareness of healthy diet and lifestyle behaviours.

Developing and Validating Risk Algorithm for Hypertension in South Africa: Results from a Nationally Representative Cohort (2008-2017).

INTRODUCTION: There is compelling evidence of significant country-level disparities where African countries, particularly South Africa, have the highest hypertension rates in the world. AIM: To develop and validate a simple risk scoring algorithm for hypertension in a large cohort (80,270) of South African men and women. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression models were used to build our hypertension risk scoring algorithm and validated externally and internally using the standard statistical techniques. We also compared our risk scores with the results from the Framingham risk prediction model for hypertension. RESULTS: Six factors were identified as the significant correlates of hypertension: age, education, obesity, smoking, alcohol intake and exercise. A score of ≥ 25 (out of 57) for men and ≥ 35 (out of 75) for women were selected as the optimum cut-points with 82% (43%) and 83% (49%) sensitivity (specificity) for males and females, respectively in the development datasets. We estimated probabilities of developing hypertension using the Framingham risk prediction model, which were higher among those with higher scores for hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying, targeting and prioritising individuals at highest risk of hypertension will have significant impact on preventing severe cardiometabolic diseases by scaling up healthy diet and life-style factors. Our six-item risk scoring algorithm may be included as part of hypertension prevention and treatment programs by targeting older individuals with high body fat measurements who are at highest risk of developing hypertension.

School-Level Variation in Coverage of Co-Administered dTpa and HPV Dose 1 in Three Australian States.

BACKGROUND: Australian adolescents are routinely offered HPV and dTpa (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis) vaccines simultaneously in the secondary school vaccination program. We identified schools where HPV initiation was lower than dTpa coverage and associated school-level factors across three states. METHODS: HPV vaccination initiation rates and dTpa vaccination coverage in 2016 were calculated using vaccine databases and school enrolment data. A multivariate analysis assessed sociodemographic and school-level factors associated with HPV initiation being >5% absolute lower than dTpa coverage. RESULTS: Of 1280 schools included, the median school-level HPV initiation rate was 85% (interquartile range (IQR):75-90%) and the median dTpa coverage was 86% (IQR:75-92%). Nearly a quarter (24%) of all schools had HPV vaccination initiation >5% lower than dTpa coverage and 11 % had >10% difference. School-level factors independently associated with >5% difference were remote schools (aOR:3.5, 95% CI = 1.7-7.2) and schools in major cities (aOR:1.8, 95% CI = 1.0-3.0), small schools (aOR:3.3, 95% CI = 2.3-5.7), higher socioeconomic advantage (aOR:1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.6), and lower proportions of Language-background-other-than-English (aOR:1.9, 95% CI = 1.2-3.0). CONCLUSION: The results identified a quarter of schools had lower HPV than dTpa initiation coverage, which may indicate HPV vaccine hesitancy, and the difference was more likely in socioeconomically advantaged schools. As hesitancy is context specific, it is important to understand the potential drivers of hesitancy and future research needs to understand the reasons driving differential uptake.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness of decision aids for vaccination decision-making.

BACKGROUND: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the effectiveness of vaccination decision aids compared with usual care on vaccine uptake, vaccine attitudes, decisional conflict, intent to vaccinate and timeliness. METHODS: Searches were conducted in OVID Medline, OVID Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library and SCOPUS. Randomised controlled trials were included if they evaluated the impact of decision aids as defined by the International Patient Decision Aids Standards Collaboration. Where possible, meta-analysis was undertaken. Where meta-analysis was not possible, we conducted a narrative synthesis. Risk of bias in included trials was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool. Data were analysed using STATA. RESULTS: Five RCTs were identified that evaluated the effectiveness of decision aids in the context of vaccination decision making. Meta-analysis of four studies showed that decision aids may have slightly increased vaccination uptake, but this was reduced to no effect once studies with higher risk of bias were excluded. Meta-analysis of three studies showed that decision aids moderately increased intention to vaccinate. Narrative synthesis of two studies suggested that decision aids reduced decisional conflict. One study reported that decision aids decreased perceived risk of vaccination. Content, format and delivery method of the decision aids varied across the studies. It was not clear from the information reported whether these variations affected the effectiveness of the decision aids. CONCLUSION: Decision aids can assist in vaccine decision making. Future studies of decision aids could provide greater detail of the decision aids themselves, which would enable comparison of the effectiveness of different elements and formats. Standardising decision aids would also allow for easier comparison between decision aids.

Cancer in the Solomon Islands.

INTRODUCTION: The Solomon Islands, with a population of 550,000, has significant challenges in addressing non-communicable diseases, including cancer, in the face of significant economic, cultural, general awareness and health system challenges. OBJECTIVES: To summarise the existing knowledge regarding cancer in the Solomon Islands, to gather new data and make recommendations. METHODS: A literature review was undertaken and cancer data from the National Referral Hospital, Honiara were analysed and are presented. Key stakeholders were interviewed for their perspectives including areas to target for ongoing, incremental improvements. Last, a health services audit for cancer using the WHO SARA tool was undertaken. RESULTS: Breast and cervical cancer remain the first and second most commonly identified cancers in the Solomon Islands. The Solomons cancer registry is hospital based and suffers from incomplete data collection due to its passive nature, lack of resources for data entry and processing resulting in weak data which is rarely used for decision-making. The health system audit revealed system and individual reasons for delayed diagnosis or lack of cancer treatment or palliation in the Solomon Islands. Reasons included lack of patient knowledge regarding symptoms, late referrals to the National Referral Hospital and inability of health care workers to detect cancers either due to lack of skills to do so, or lack of diagnostic capabilities, and an overall lack of access to any health care, due to geographical barriers and overall national economic fragility. CONCLUSION: The Solomon Islands is challenged in preventing, diagnosing, treating and palliating cancer. Stakeholders recommend establishing specialty expertise (in the form of a cancer unit), improved registry processes and increased collaboration between the sole tertiary hospital nationwide and other Solomon health services as important targets for incremental improvement.

Plagiocephaly and Developmental Delay: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: Deformational plagiocephaly (includes plagiocephaly and brachycephaly) is a common pediatric condition. Infants who present with altered head shape often experience developmental delay. It is uncertain how common developmental delay is in infants with plagiocephaly and how sustained this is, when present. This review explores the association between plagiocephaly and developmental delay to guide clinical practice. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic review was conducted. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PEDro databases were searched. Data from relevant studies were extracted regarding study: sample, follow-up, design, and findings. Methodological quality of each study was rated using a critical appraisal tool. RESULTS: The search recovered 1315 articles of which 19 met the inclusion criteria. In the included studies, the children's ages ranged from 3 months to 10 years. Study limitations included selection bias, nonblinding of assessors, and reuse of the same study population for multiple papers. Most papers (11/19) rated "moderate" on methodological quality. A positive association between plagiocephaly and developmental delay was reported in 13 of 19 studies, including 4 of 5 studies with "strong" methodological quality. Delay was more frequently in studies with children ≤24 months of age (9/12 studies) compared with >24 months of age (3/7 studies). Motor delay was the most commonly affected domain reported in high-quality papers (5/5 studies). CONCLUSION: This review suggests plagiocephaly is a marker of elevated risk of developmental delays. Clinicians should closely monitor infants with plagiocephaly for this. Prompt referral to early intervention services such as physiotherapy may ameliorate motor delays and identify infants with longer term developmental needs.